Dive into the world of Bitcoin price predictions as Blockstream’s CEO places a significant bet on the cryptocurrency’s future.
One of the most well-known forecasts for Bitcoin’s price was that it will hit $100,000 following the most recent halving in 2020. This prediction was incorrect since it assumed that this amount would be reached as early as 2021, which was during the bull run that followed the 2020 halving and made PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow chart famous.
People have long thought that following the second halving in April next year, the $100,000 threshold may be crossed. These people have been joined by some who anticipate a similar catastrophe may occur before April 2024.
Blockstream CEO and co-founder Adam Back offered this optimistic prediction. Blockstream is arguably the biggest Bitcoin developer. It develops Bitcoin-based software and has raised $210 million. It was one of the first to design and release Lightning Network-based software.
Back is well-known in the cryptocurrency community and has previously taken bullish positions on Bitcoin.
A tenth of a Bitcoin, or one million Satoshi, is what he most recently wagered on Bitcoin’s price reaching or exceeding $100,000 by March 31st, 2024.
One million Satoshi is a tiny bet because it only amounts to around $290 at the current exchange rate, but the fact that it is a public wager is crucial.
It doesn’t matter that Back is placing a $290 wager; what matters is that he has openly expressed his belief that the price of bitcoin may cross that crucial psychological threshold before even the next halving.
It’s important to note that the other betmaker, X user Vikingo, suggested the stake amount, predicting that the price of bitcoin will instead stay below $100,000 until at least March 31, 2024.
The following Bitcoin bull run
Such an event requires the startling of a strong new bull run.
Prior to the first halving in 2012, a massive speculative bubble developed, driving the price of Bitcoin from $10 to over $1,100 before bursting, sending it back down to about $150.
Even after the second halving, which occurred in 2016, a speculative bubble expanded, bringing the value from roughly $1,000 to almost $20,000 before eventually crashing and falling back to $3,000 in value.
The bubble was less pronounced after the third halving, which occurred in 2020. It went from $20,000 to $69,000 before reverting to $15,000.
In other words, before the subsequent halving, the all-time highs reached by the price of Bitcoin during the post-halving bull runs were never surpassed. So it would be a first if what Back is imagining occurs.
The price of Bitcoin would need to increase by more than three times and reach +44% from the late 2021 highs in order to reach $100,000 from where it is currently. Therefore, this is an extremely bullish assumption that may even be too optimistic.
eToro’s pricing analysis on bitcoin
The cryptocurrency market is closely monitoring developments related BlackRock’s application to be able to issue an ETF on spot Bitcoin in the US market, according to eToro market analyst Simon Peters.
There may be a reason for Back’s assertion because, in theory, any SEC approval in this area may occur before March 2024.
The SEC’s approval of this proposal is far from guaranteed, in part because it has consistently rejected similar initiatives in the past.
However, BlackRock is favored in theory because its ETF applications are approved at a rate of more than 99%.
It is assumed that if such an ETF were to be very successful in the traditional markets, it would end up using a significant portion of the BTC currently available, hence reducing their supply.
According to Peters, the crypto market is currently lacking a spark to build on June’s favorable trends.
As a result, the scenario does not appear to be very fascinating in the near term, but the picture may be different in the medium and long terms.
However, much will also depend on the US economy, as a recession might have an especially negative impact on the traditional financial markets.