This surge in egg prices is the most significant since the last major bird flu outbreak in 2015 and accounted for approximately two-thirds of last month’s total increase in food costs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The nationwide average does not reflect the full picture, as a carton of eggs can cost $10 or more in some areas. Specialized varieties, such as organic and cage-free eggs, are even more expensive.
“We do use eggs a little less often now, you know, because of the price,” said Jon Florey while looking at the options in the egg section at Encinal Market in Alameda, California. “I was going to make a quiche that I like to make, and it’s about six eggs, so I figured I’d do something else.”
There is no immediate relief in sight. Egg prices typically increase around Easter due to heightened demand. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently predicted a 20% rise in egg prices this year.
Even for those who can afford eggs, availability remains an issue. Some grocery stores struggle to keep shelves stocked, with customers facing surcharges and limits on the number of cartons they can purchase.
Encinal Market owner Joe Trimble noted challenges in receiving the full quantity of eggs ordered from suppliers. As a result, his shelves are often only about 25% stocked.
“It’s something you don’t think about until you look at the shelf and it’s nearly empty,” Trimble said. Eggs are “just expected to be there in the same way you expect there to be milk. It’s a key item in a grocery store because people don’t go out looking for something else to eat on a Saturday morning. They want it. They want to have some scrambled eggs or over-easy eggs on a Saturday morning.”
The primary reason for the rise in egg prices is the ongoing bird flu outbreak. When the virus is detected on a farm, the entire flock is culled to prevent further spread. Since large egg farms can house millions of birds, a single outbreak significantly impacts supply. Nearly 158 million birds have been culled since the outbreak began.
The Agriculture Department reports that more than 23 million birds were slaughtered last month, with over 18 million killed in December to contain the virus. These numbers include turkeys and chickens raised for meat, but the majority were egg-laying hens.
Once an outbreak occurs on a farm, it takes months to dispose of the affected birds, sanitize the facilities, and raise new chickens until they are mature enough to lay eggs, meaning the consequences are long-lasting.
Bird flu cases tend to rise in the spring and fall due to wild bird migration, though outbreaks can happen year-round. The virus has also spread to cattle and other species, with dozens of human cases reported—mostly among farmworkers handling infected animals.
Health officials emphasize that the risk to human health remains low, and eggs and poultry remain safe to eat. Sick animals are not allowed into the food supply, and cooking meat and eggs to at least 165 degrees Fahrenheit eliminates the virus. Pasteurization also neutralizes bird flu in milk.
Beyond the bird flu outbreak, other factors contribute to rising egg prices. Farmers face increased costs for feed, fuel, and labor due to inflation. They are also investing more in biosecurity measures to protect their flocks.
Laws requiring cage-free eggs in several states have further impacted supply and prices. These regulations are already in effect in California, Massachusetts, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Michigan. Many recent outbreaks have affected cage-free farms, where supply is already tighter and more regionally concentrated.
Egg consumption has also grown significantly in recent years. Consumers are buying more eggs, and the rise of all-day breakfast restaurants has increased demand.
CoBank analyst Brian Earnest noted that high prices could discourage some purchases, which might ease demand but is unlikely to have a major impact. It will likely take months for producers to replenish supply.
“As consumers continue to stock up on eggs, supplies at the store level will remain tight, and with Easter right around the corner, that could prolong the tighter supplies,” Earnest said.
For food manufacturers relying on eggs, such as bakeries, the prolonged high prices present a challenge. Companies will have to decide whether to pass costs on to consumers or reduce production.
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