Long-term bitcoin price prediction based on BTC cycles. X (previously Twittter) cryptocurrency analyst CryptoCon released it.
In general, the Bitcoin cycle lasts roughly three years and ten months.
This cycle is broken by Bitcoin’s sole monetary policy measure—the halving of miners’ rewards—and it is quite predictable.
every actuality, a halving happens exactly every 210,000 blocks, and a block is normally mined every 10 minutes.
Theoretically, a halving should take place every 4 years or so, but in practice, the average block time has always been just under 10 minutes.
This indicates that a halving has typically taken place every three years and ten months.
On January 3, 2009, the first block of the Bitcoin blockchain was mined, and the first halving happened in November 2012.
There have been three halving incidents to date (2012, 2016 and 2020), and in each of them, a significant bull run (2013, 2017 and 2021) was set off the following year, which was then followed by a bear market (2014, 2018 and 2022).
As miners are required to sell the BTCs they receive on the market to pay the high costs of mining (particularly power), the halving is anticipated to lower the quantity of BTCs on the market.
If they collect less, they will have fewer products to sell, which will eventually lead to a reduction in supply.
Upcoming cycle
The fourth halving, which will take place precisely at the 840,000 block that is anticipated to be mined in April 2024, or May at the latest, will mark the start of Bitcoin’s next cycle.
According to CryptoCon’s prognosis, the price of bitcoin has always reversed at the end of a bear market; this seems to have been the case even after last November’s shock.
Although the first cycle is somewhat different from the others and is sometimes left out in comparisons, we are currently in what is technically the fourth phase of the fourth cycle.
The fifth cycle, which in all three prior instances has been characterized by a period of rising BTC values, will officially begin with the next halving.
A second phase, the speculative bubble, which is then followed by a third phase, the bear market, has always come after this.
The Bitcoin price forecast from CryptoCon
CryptoCon predicts that the next bull run will begin on November 28th, 2024, and that the next all-time high will occur between the first of November and the last day of December of the following year.
Between the beginning of November and the end of December 2026, the following bear market bottom should be noted.
CryptoCon simply discusses the direction of the upcoming price cycle here rather than making any price forecasts.
Despite the fact that there should, in principle, be no certainty regarding the price trend of Bitcoin, there is certainty regarding the halving cycle, or the fact that BTC’s monetary policy is modified every three years and ten months.
This forecast is known as “The November 28th Cycles Theory” by CryptoCon since historically, this date has coincided with the beginning of the bull run, the height of the bubble, and the bottom of the bear market. On November 28th, 2012, the first halving, which took place in 2011, will also take place.
The fourth cycle would then be at its halt phase, which would run until the subsequent halving. The price of bitcoin is currently in the cycle’s longest phase, which lasts through November 2021, when it will reach a high of $69,000.
Price and price halving: Bitcoin’s long-term outlook
It is vital to make a distinction between the two, even though the CryptoCon chart makes it plain that the price of bitcoin has so far faithfully followed the halving pattern.
The price trend is not safe or predictable because it also depends on outside causes, but the halving is a safe and predictable technical procedure.
It is surprising, however, that despite drastically different macroeconomic circumstances over the years, the bitcoin price cycle has remained consistent with the 28 November theory’s rhythm. It is as if the fixed and predictable halving cycle has managed to outlast the erratic and unpredictable external conditions.
Such a rigid monetary policy might in reality have rather predictable and constant effects, with external factors mainly affecting its extremes and the size of rises and falls.
Contrarily, CryptoCon simply predicts when the various up and down phases will start and when subsequent peaks are expected to be recorded, not what prices bitcoin might reach in the future.
