October starts strong as Bitcoin rises 13.5% from September’s low, reaching $28,000 and signaling a bullish trend for the second half of 2023.
Given that the price of bitcoin exceeded $28,000 yesterday, some people have declared that October has officially begun.
Although it has barely reached the levels of the first half of August, in actuality, it is currently +13.5% from USD 24,800 on September 11. The low for the first half of the second half of 2023 was USD 24,800.
October: Bitcoin surpasses USD 28,000 in value
It is clear that the term “uptober” is a play on the terms “up” and “october.”
It alludes to the fact that, since 2013, October has twice seen a decline in the price of Bitcoin, with the remaining instances seeing increases.
Furthermore, the two drops that have occurred, in 2014 and 2018, occurred during negative markets, despite the fact that bitcoin still saw a +5% October increase during the most recent down market last year. Nevertheless, it saw its last bear market decline, plunging to $15,500 later in November following the FTX bankruptcy.
The October outcomes in the two years after the bear market, 2015 and 2019, are especially fascinating.
It reached a maximum of +33% in October 2015, however this was mostly because of the extremely poor results in the preceding months. In contrast, October 2019 ended with a very respectable +10%.
After closing at over USD 27,000 in September 2023, it is currently exhibiting an encouraging +5% in the first few days of October. Furthermore, compared to, say, 2019, 2023’s total performance has been poorer in percentage terms.
Considering that September began trading at USD 26,000, the month’s overall result was up about +4%.
Will November’s bitcoin price in USD mirror October’s?
To be fair, November has historically seen a reasonably favorable month for the price of Bitcoin, with the exception of bear market years.
This could be the result of a minor technical problem with taxes.
In fact, people who are profiting from their Bitcoins often hold onto them until the end of the year to avoid having to report capital gains to the IRS. If you sell in January, for instance, you are essentially delaying paying any taxes due for a full year.
This indicates that fewer people are likely to sell at the end of the year in years when prices tend to rise, but that this dynamic returns to normal in January.
Considering that most bitcoin wallets seem to be operating profitably right now, this reasoning may have an impact on the price and market of bitcoin until at least December.
On the other hand, it makes sense to sell before the end of the year in order to accept capital losses and then offset them against potential capital gains in years when the price is down and many are losing money.
Growing curiosity
The term “uptober” is becoming more and more common, particularly among social media users.
It goes without saying that the idea that October is generally a happy month is widely accepted, and the term “uptober” does have a lot of communication power.
It must also be acknowledged, though, that cryptocurrency markets frequently perform poorly and go against popular expectation.
In fact, investors may decide not to sell in the near future because to the heightened interest in bitcoin brought on by uptober forecasts, but it’s also likely that this has already encouraged them to purchase in ahead. If so, the rate of increase in demand might soon stop.
Furthermore, if products fall short of expectations, many might sell because of the intense disappointment. But keep in mind that these are only short-term dynamics; historical dynamics may take over in the medium run.
A lot will depend on the macroeconomic environment because rising bitcoin prices require liquidity.
There is one aspect, though, that appears promising.
The increase above $28,000 yesterday happened when conventional exchanges were closed.
Specifically, yesterday’s first rise of the day corresponded with the opening of other exchanges in the APAC (Asia-Pacific) area, while the Chinese and Japanese markets remain closed.
As a result, it is challenging to attribute this increase to the conventional markets, which is encouraging.
Because bitcoin led the crypto markets yesterday, it can only be viewed as a sign of strength if there is a surge just inside the crypto markets. Indeed, its hegemony has grown as well, bringing it close to the June highs each year.
It is difficult to tell where the liquidity that has been required to support this surge has come from at this time, although it most likely originated in Asia.
