Gold and Bitcoin surge

We’ve grown used to Robert Kiyosaki’s bold predictions about the price of gold and Bitcoin by now, but this time he wanted to make more specific predictions. He believes that there will be issues with the U.S. and worldwide economies, and that these issues will lead to a significant increase in the value of both gold and Bitcoin.

The estimate for the price of Bitcoin and gold

The well-known author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” predicts that gold will eventually surpass $2,100 in price.

The highest price an ounce has ever been was $2,080 in March of last year and May of this year.

Actually, the peak would have been $1,920 in September 2011 or possibly even $870 in January 1980 if one also took into account the dollar’s real value decline throughout time owing to inflation, but these comparisons are typically based on nominal value.

Gold had never in its history sold for more than $2,000 an ounce before July 2020, and it had dropped to just over $1,700 just a year prior.

This data shows that there hasn’t been much volatility in the price of gold over time.

It started an upward trend in November 2022 and reached beyond $1,950 in February of this year. In May, it even reached $2,080 again.

It rebounded to little over $1,800 at the beginning of October 2023, but it has been growing steadily for the past two solid weeks.

It nearly reached $2,000 an ounce again on Friday, and it now seems likely that this milestone will soon be reached.

Kiyosaki predicts that this trend will continue and that it might soon surpass $2,100 an ounce for the first time ever, setting new records. It might also take off at that time and move towards $3,700.

Bitcoin forecast

Even more bullish is Kiyosaki’s prediction regarding Bitcoin.

Indeed, he contends that it might initiate a fresh bull run that would push it to record highs of $135,000.

There have been three significant bullruns to yet, and they have all happened in the year after the halving year.

It can be summarised as follows: there have been three halvings (2012), 2020, and 2017; after each, a sizable speculative bubble burst the following year (2013, 2017, and 2021).

The price had increased to $1,100 during the first bubble, $20,000 during the second, and $69,000 during the third.

Many had actually predicted that it would rise by x5 from the previous highs in 2021 rather than x3.5, but the Chinese embargo prevented some cash from being available in the second part of the year, which prevented it from reaching $100,000.

As a result, Kiyosaki’s theory seems reasonable despite being overly optimistic.

It is not implausible to envision a plentiful x2 from the current all-time high should the bullrun be started as early as the following halving year (April 2024) or as early as the end of 2023 with a robust and powerful breakthrough of the $30,000 mark and continue into 2025.

The decreasing quantity of bitcoin and its correlation with the price of gold

This dynamic should have the decrease in market supply at its core.

More specifically, halving will reduce the amount of new Bitcoin by half. Since these are sold at a premium to miners to cover their high operating costs, supply reduction is a very likely outcome.

Furthermore, consider that a significant portion of Bitcoin owners appear to have already made the decision not to sell, as evidenced by the fact that long-term hodlers, who have not moved their coins in 155 days, possess 76% of all Bitcoins now in circulation.

The markets will hold less Bitcoin as more is essentially immobilised, and this dynamic will only get worse if spot Bitcoin ETFs are ever approved in the US.

Holders’ profits

The decision to immobilise Bitcoins (at least temporarily) was made because of their increasing worth due to their upward trajectory.

For instance, MicroStrategy has an unrealized gain of around $60 million as of August 2020, having acquired 158,245 BTC at an average price of almost $27,000.

When Bitcoin was first acquired, in early 2023, in the second part of 2022, or before 2021, it was much cheaper than it is today.

Put another, the people who purchased Bitcoin between January 2021 and May 2022 are the only ones who, assuming they haven’t sold it, are still at a net loss; everyone else is either breaking even, only slightly losing money, or profiting. A few of these have also made significant advances.

It is evident that holders may choose not to sell, at least not right away, if the trend appears to be towards continued expansion.

Kiyosaki’s forecast is quite realistic within this framework, although being extremely optimistic.